and several considerations, part 3
As we continue to list some considerations for preparing for the possible early tipping point of AMOC, we are guided by the ethic proposed in part 1.
7. Income:
With so many things about the future of our economy unknown, it is likely that many people will have a tough time making a living. In our current economic system, those who succeed may exacerbate the income inequality we already have. We will need a way for people to afford to live – a basic income (Home – Basic Income Canada Network) with claw-backs only at very high levels of earned income. This will be necessary for people to purchase their needs, and for money to circulate among businesses. A basic income could also minimize natural anxiety about where the next meal will come from and whether today’s shelter will be there tomorrow. This will be necessary for social and political stability and should be administered much as the Canada Pension Plan is, pretty independently from politicians.
8. Government:
We will need better government than we have now (Resilient Institutions: Learning from Canada’s COVID-19 Pandemic – Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation (irpp.org). Administrators must organize well, plan into the future, and design basic income, taxation, and monetary distribution even during extreme strains on communication, data processing, and information storage. We need policies developed on the bases of good evidence and thought, and not so subject to ideological swings in governments. We need elected politicians who, like Canadian appointed senators, (Independent Advisory Board for Senate Appointments – Canada.ca) must have backgrounds of personal and employment accomplishments, and a history of contribution to the general good. Ideologies must give way to good governance. Politics along with economics, must be employed for the good of all.3 Politics must not continue to be a privileged sandbox where politicians and staffers play their own games and produce poor theatre as a substitute for thoughtful debate, planning, legislating and governing.
9. Homelessness:
We haven’t been doing well with this since the Canadian government abandoned its role in providing affordable housing in the 1990’s (Multiple Barriers: the Multilevel Governance of Homelessness in Canada, Alison Smith). Continued lack of planning, arguments among the different levels of government, and the massive increase in allowed immigration, refugee entrants, and asylum seekers, together with labour shortage in some industries and all the difficulties of COVID and supply chain problems, have left us with devastating and immoral consequences. New, highly dangerous and addictive illicit drugs, along with increases in the number of people with mental health problems, have contributed.
AMOC, following the earlier climate changes which have already been raising water levels along eastern coastlines, will increase the east coast water levels further, and may force people to relocate their homes, businesses, and communities, as has happened in Louisiana, for example (Louisiana town moves to higher ground amid growing climate crisis (cnbc.com)). Assuming all inland property is currently owned by somebody, it will be necessary to compensate people for the loss of their business and residential locations, the cost of moving, and the cost of buying or renting space elsewhere. This requires more government action to keep capitalism from making even more people poor, and from depriving people who must relinquish/sell their land to newcomers, from feeling unfairly deprived of their property.
A great deal of planning, discussion with affected people, and collaboration will be needed NOW, as we begin a different future much earlier than expected.
10. Climate refugees:
With the frequent mass starvation due to heavy storms and also to rising temperatures and drought in many regions, one might expect that more people will want to move to areas like ours. But Hein de Hass (How Migration Really Works: the Facts about the Most Divisive Issues in Politics), citing his own thirty years of study and many multi-national and U.N. research projects and reports, maintains that this is unlikely to happen. Rather, there will be need to improve those areas’ farming, irrigation, and water conservation methods, and to help people there create governments that are more set on providing for them than on warfare and self-aggrandizement.
Based on all the research in that book, I suggest we are most likely to adapt to fewer imports from those areas and to providing them more aid to live where they are. Given our own uncertainties, we may have difficulty with these problems. But if we adopt an ethic of generosity and compassion, we will work very hard to help.
11. Geopolitics and local politics:
I would be remiss not to list this as a consideration. 2025 will be a federal election year in the U.S. and possibly in Canada.
How either of these two countries deals with the climate crisis generally, and the tipping point of AMOC specifically, will be a concern. Will they acknowledge the beginning of the tipping point if it occurs in 2025? Will each have a political environment (see above under Government) that will exercise generosity and compassion? Will they show transparency and dedication to the good of their citizens and residents? It was only at the end of last year that the Ontario government, under pressure from the loyal opposition party and the advocacy group Seniors for Climate Action Now! (Seniors for Climate Action Now | We are seniors compelled to urgent action) forced the government to release six reports completed at the beginning of last year regarding how climate change’s effects in our area and what kinds of planning are required. The U.S. Republican presidential candidate has pledged to “drill, baby, drill,” and in his earlier administration reduced government interventions into climate change drivers. The government of Canada has introduced many measures, which have caused many complications in their relations with the provinces, and some decisions have been nullified by courts.
As we meet AMOC, it is the attitude of not only individuals, but that of governments, which will determine how we adapt to this and many possible changes in 2025.
12. Habits:
We may have to change our lifestyle habits. All the discussion I’ve read so far about energy needs, assumes we will keep doing everything we do now, and even more, always needing more energy and other resources. We may have to change some habits, to use less energy by reducing the need of power-hungry computer servers, local and distant travel, and demand for manufactured things. We learned to change many habits during COVID (however begrudgingly and temporarily), and learned how to do many basic things differently (or not do them for a while). We learned to wait for some things, or simply not do them or procure them. We may need to adapt habits to availability of energy, water, food, and employments. An ethic of generosity and compassion will help us choose and plan those changes.
More about habits will be discussed in the final post (part 4) as an appendix.
Conclusion: I strongly advocate adopting this ethic for AMOC and thereafter, and encourage people to insist that governments do so as well. It is far better than letting fear, defensiveness, partisanship, and politics be at the front of our responses. And if this ethic leads us to not wait and then respond, but think ahead and plan ahead, all the better for us. But more in the appendix.
3 See Things to reconsider NOW: economics, Part 1 – Upon reconsidering…, and Things to reconsider NOW: economics, Part II – Upon reconsidering…
Upon reconsidering... 